“Atiku has spoken. Now, he needs to Atikulate” —Olalekan A. Babatunde
Former Vice President and presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, has once again placed the politically combustible issue of petroleum subsidy at the center of Nigeria’s national conversation. His recent declaration that he would restore a “targeted subsidy” if elected president in 2027 has generated excitement among those crushed by the rising cost of living, while simultaneously raising serious questions among economists, policy analysts, and political observers.
The problem is not that Atiku has proposed an alternative approach to fuel subsidy. Every serious democracy should encourage alternative policy choices. The problem is that, so far, the policy has not been sufficiently Atikulated.
Atiku’s message is emotionally compelling. Nigerians understand the painful relationship between fuel prices, transportation costs, food inflation and the declining purchasing power of wages. As Atiku puts it, when fuel prices rise, transportation costs rise; when transportation costs rise, food prices follow; and ultimately, families suffer. That argument resonates powerfully with millions of Nigerians who have watched their incomes lose value since the removal of the petrol subsidy.
But public policy, particularly economic policy, cannot survive on emotional resonance alone. It requires clarity. And clarity is precisely what Atiku’s subsidy proposition still needs.
The former Vice-President has said he will restore the subsidy. His spokesperson initially suggested that the subsidy would be restored and later phased out. Subsequently, another clarification indicated that the policy would not represent a return to the old import subsidy regime. Instead, Atiku’s camp described the proposal as a targeted, capped, transparently budgeted, and independently audited intervention designed to support domestic refining and production, with measurable conditions under which government support would eventually become unnecessary.
This clarification is important. But it also raises more questions. Who exactly will receive the subsidy? Will it be the consumer at the petrol pump? Will it be domestic refiners through discounted crude oil? Will transport operators receive support? Will the intervention apply to petrol alone, or to diesel and other energy products as well? What will be the annual cost to the government? Where will the money come from? How will leakages and corruption be prevented? Most importantly, how will Nigerians know that this new subsidy will not simply become the old subsidy wearing a new agbada?
These are not hostile questions. They are the questions that a presidential candidate seeking to manage Africa’s largest economy must answer. The Nigerian public has been here before.
For years, fuel subsidy has been presented as a social protection mechanism. Yet it gradually became associated with opaque claims, fraudulent transactions, phantom imports, and a political economy in which a few powerful interests appeared to benefit more than the ordinary Nigerian supposedly being protected.
That is why the phrase “targeted subsidy” alone is not enough. Targeted at whom? Capped at what amount? Funded from which revenue source? Administered by which institution? Audited by whom? And under what circumstances will the intervention end?
Atiku’s camp has attempted to answer some of these questions by saying the proposed intervention would support domestic refining and production rather than revive the old import-dependent subsidy architecture. The stated objective is to reduce production costs, expand domestic refining, increase supply and eventually create a market capable of delivering affordable petroleum products without continuous government support.
That is potentially a more sophisticated proposition than simply returning petrol prices to an artificially low level. But the policy must now move from political slogan to policy blueprint.
Nigeria does not need another subsidy debate driven by whether one supports or opposes President Bola Tinubu. Neither should the question be reduced to whether Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has changed his mind since the 2023 presidential campaign, when he supported the removal of the subsidy and described the old regime as unsustainable. His current position is undeniably different from the position he campaigned on during the last election cycle.
Politicians are entitled to change their positions when circumstances change or when evidence demands a new approach. Indeed, rigidity is not necessarily a virtue in economic management. But when a politician changes position on an issue as consequential as petroleum subsidy, the burden of explanation becomes heavier.
Atiku must therefore do more than say, “I will restore it.” He must tell Nigerians precisely what “it” means.
The Presidency has challenged him to provide details about the cost, beneficiaries, funding mechanism, and termination conditions of his proposed targeted subsidy. Whatever the political motivation behind the challenge, these are legitimate policy questions.
Atiku should seize the opportunity. He should publish a detailed Petroleum Affordability and Domestic Refining Framework. Nigerians deserve to see the numbers. What is the projected fiscal cost? What percentage of crude oil will be available to local refiners under preferential arrangements? How will the government ensure that refiners pass the benefits to consumers? What safeguards will prevent private refiners from receiving public support without reducing pump prices?
There must also be an independent monitoring mechanism. Nigerians have become too experienced with promises to accept another policy that depends solely on the integrity of politicians and bureaucrats.
If the proposed subsidy is truly targeted, then technology should make targeting possible. If it is designed to support production, then the beneficiaries and performance indicators should be publicly available. If it is transparently budgeted, then Nigerians should be able to see exactly how much is being spent. If it is independently audited, then the audit reports should not be locked away in government offices.
The greatest strength of Atiku’s argument is that it confronts a painful reality: economic reforms cannot be judged only by macroeconomic statistics. The ordinary citizen measures the economy by what his salary can buy, what it costs to travel, whether food is affordable, and whether his business can survive.
But the greatest weakness of his argument, at least for now, is that the mechanism for translating his promise into policy remains insufficiently explained. Nigeria has suffered enough from economic policies that were announced before they were fully understood. The 2027 election should be an opportunity to change that culture.
Presidential candidates should not merely tell Nigerians what they will do. They should explain how they will do it, how much it will cost, who will benefit, and how success will be measured.
Atiku may indeed have identified a legitimate weakness in the current economic conversation: the assumption that the only choices available to Nigeria are either an unlimited, corruption-prone subsidy or a completely uncompensated market price. There may be a third way. But that third way must be clearly designed, costed, and explained.
For now, Atiku has given Nigerians a powerful political message: Nigeria is rich enough to protect its citizens from unnecessary hardship. That is a proposition worth debating. What is still missing is the detailed economic roadmap.
The policy may yet be sound. It may even prove innovative. But before Nigerians can embrace it, the subsidy proposal must be taken out of the realm of campaign rhetoric and placed under public scrutiny.
Atiku has spoken. Now, he needs to Atikulate.
♦ Dr. Babatunde is a Fellow at Nigeria’s Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, a Part-time Professor at China’s Zhejiang Normal University; writes via austinebabatunde@yahoo.com
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