Three days to the Anambra South senatorial by-election, candidates of participating political parties have stepped up campaigns across the seven local governments of the senatorial districts. Altogether, about four political parties, namely, YPP, ADC, APGA, and APC, have intensified campaigns across the senatorial zone. The YPP candidate, Prince Oforbuike Okoli-Egbo, who is the youngest of all the contestants, is a diehard supporter of late Senator Ifeanyi Ubah to the end, and he is the only candidate from the Orumba North and Orumba South federal constituency.
The ADC’s candidate, Barr. Donald Amagbo is from the Ihiala federal constituency. Chief Emma Nwachukwu, the APGA candidate, is from Nnewi South, in Nnewi North, Nnewi South, and Ekwusigo federal constituency. Meanwhile, the APC’s candidate, Azuka Okwuosa, is from the Ekwusigo local government.
By far, this Saturday’s election is shaping up as a very close contest with no apparent winner just yet. This is because the dynamics of Anambra South politics are different, and even with the demise of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah, those dynamics cannot be easily wished away. The YPP remains the major political party in Nnewi North local government area that has consistently produced the vote that makes Anambra South senators. Recent visits by the YPP senatorial candidate to Nnewi show very strongly that the party is still alive, well, and ready to replicate its hard-fought victory in 2019 and 2023. Yet, Oforbuike is the only candidate from Orumba North and Orumba South local governments, including Aguata, who is running in the senatorial election and therefore might likely enjoy massive support from his home base. In a rally on Tuesday, different community and political leaders in Orumba assured that they will support Prince Oforbuike. “Victory is ours on Saturday. We are confident in Prince Oforbuike’s competence. In Orumba North and South, we shall use everything we have to support Oforbuike because he is one of us,” a youth leader declared. But for Oforbuike, “We are standing on a divine mandate,” he said, assuring the people of quality representation at the Nigerian Senate.
Similarly, the candidate of the ADC, Barr. Donald Amagbo has been traversing the length and breadth of Anambra South. His challenge is that he is running on an untested platform like the ADC. However, he has continued to push, leaving his footprints across Anambra South as a serious candidate. So far, he is working hard to leverage his contacts in Nnewi for a fair share of the coveted Nnewi votes. But also luckily, the governorship candidate of the ADC, Mr. John Nwosu, is from Nnewi. This might create the impression that the ADC may likely not have a bad outing in Nnewi. But even so, his path to victory remains unclear.
Chief Emma Nwachukwu, the candidate of APGA, hails from Nnewi South. Just like Orumba North and Orumba South, Nnewi South has also not produced a senator before. As a ruling party in Anambra State, APGA was supposed to leverage its supposed head-start, but it is apparently not easy. Nwachukwu and the APC gubernatorial candidate hail from the same local government, and it is not likely that the candidate will leave anything to chance in making sure that APGA is contained in this Saturday’s election in Nnewi South local government. However, Aguata local government, which is the Governor’s base, might come to the rescue of Chief Nwachukwu, and he might also secure some votes in Nnewi.
The APC candidate, Azuka Okwuosa, has been campaigning heavily like others. However, he might find it a bit difficult, first because of his party, the APC, which has a stigma among many Anambra State voters. But even if this were not the case, in his own local government, he might find it hard to carry the day if he were opposed by an important stakeholder in the local government. Even more, the APC doesn’t have a stronghold in any part of the Anambra South senatorial zone.
On Tuesday, three days before the by-election, while the YPP was campaigning in Nnewi and Orumba, APGA was at Ekwusigo, and ADC was also in Orumba. Political parties and their candidates are busy begging for votes, but in a matter of days, Senator Ifeanyi Ubah’s replacement will emerge, and this might have little to do with the depths of one’s campaigns. So far, what we have seen points to the fact that a winner would likely emerge narrowly.
Although a reasoned forecast can be placed between YPP and APGA, as the brighter parties in the contest. In that instance, any of them that gets a bulk support from two local governments and also a considerable vote from Nnewi would win. But then, Saturday is almost here. It is left to be seen.
♦ Ebuka Onyekwelu, journalist and trained political scientist, is a writer and columnist with the West African Pilot News
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