“On the merit of Senator Ubah’s defection to APC, purely on the strength of prevailing reality in Nigeria’s politics today” —Ebuka Onyekwelu
The move by Senator Ifeanyi Ubah representing Anambra South senatorial zone, from Young Progressive Party- YPP, to the All Progressives Congress – APC, is a development that is of particular interest to many people, especially power brokers in Anambra State. At least in the last week, I have been confronted by no fewer than three political stakeholders who wanted my honest assessment of that move.
Now, it is important, for the purposes of this evaluation, to note, that the assumption so readily advanced by some people that Southeasterners hate APC is a popular error. The reality of the case between APC and Ndi-Igbo is one of emotional detachment, not hate. To put this in other words, for the masses of the Southeast, the APC has not made a sufficient impression that warrants their fraternity with the party. However, the question might be; whose fault? My answer is that APC for years, has had “bad sales men” in the zone. Perhaps, we will come back to this conversation at a later time. But for now, what is Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah’s defection bringing to the political equation?
First of all, I must admit that I had anticipated a grand and robust reaction against Sen. Ubah. But, for whatever reason, that did not happen. My projection was that Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah’s defection would be stiffly opposed to a halt and would form the major topic of discussion in weeks. Not only that it didn’t really receive such backlash, but it is now no longer news. The implication is that this defection has been perceived differently by many people or so it appears. Without appearing to be overly enthused, it does also appear that Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah’s popularity has a hand in this. As observed, members of his team and his supporters were all hands-on, engaging opposing views, and that might have done the magic in part. Perhaps, APC might have recruited one of its finest salesmen for the Southeast. But even beyond this, my earlier prediction was that even in the event that there is a huge backlash, Sen. Ubah can take advantage of the federal might and robustly ‘water the ground’, whatever this may mean to Nigerians. Of course, if Sen. Ubah can negotiate and secure federal appointments and good placements for his people strategically in the next year or so, every backlash will naturally find a permanent resting place. But with the current state of things, apparently, it is now laborious for the former YPP senator.
On the merit of Senator Ubah’s defection to APC, purely on the strength of prevailing reality in Nigeria’s politics today, it is a move that must be followed methodically. For a start, APC is the most organized, battle-tested, and battle-ready political party in Nigeria today, with absolutely no sign of rescinding its prime position. Therefore, the APC’s leadership and primary support base of Northwest and Southwest are intact, with no serious signs of any fracture or uncertainty. Consequently, the party is poised to enjoy many more successful national elections. What this means for a politician who intends to play national politics or play at the national corridors of power is that APC is better positioned to help him retain relevance in national politics. Frankly, the prospects of both PDP and LP are unclear or at best unknown, especially since both have not shown any signs of forming an alliance.
Finally, the last concern is Ifeanyi Ubah’s prospects if he contests the Anambra governorship election on the platform of the APC. Now, there are many variables at play in this particular instance. But, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo and Sen. Ifeanyi Ubah are the two highest political office holders who may meet again at the polls in 2025. The sound of APC may look like automatic good news for Soludo, but two years is a long time. The APC as the ruling party with so many governors has little encumbrance with funding. Senator Ifeanyi Ubah is a grassroots mobilizer who has earned his place in our politics. Considering the length of two years in political mobilization, alliance, planning, and execution, it is easy to see that APC will be a factor in the next Anambra State governorship election. In fact, without fear of contradiction, my prediction is that the 2025 Anambra State governorship election will be a two-horse race. But in the end, whoever takes the day would have fought for it, leaving absolutely no stone unturned.
He is a Technical Assistant to Governor Willie Obiano’s Special Adviser on Legislative Matters, whoonce was a Special Adviser to a former Deputy Speaker of Anambra State House of Assembly. Ebuka is a second class upper division graduate of Political Science from University of Calabar, Calabar Nigeria and holds a Masters Degree in Political Science with specialization in Government and Development Studies, from Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka Nigeria
