“People live in fear of the unknown, and the government has been unable to restore confidence or order.” —Ebuka Onyekwelu
A recent report by SBM Intelligence claims that the Southeast had lost over $4.7 billion to sit-at-home since August 2021, causing significant harm to the economy of the Southeast geo-political zone. The report, which also reckoned that the zone lost over N7.6 trillion in the first two years of the sit-at-home order, noted that the transport sector alone incurred a loss of N13 billion. An earlier report in 2023 by Nigerian Observer placed the losses at about N4.6 trillion.
Given the reality associated with the Monday sit-at-home across the Southeast, a zone that commands a remarkable flow of commercial and industrial activities in Nigeria and beyond, there is no doubt that its comparative advantage is under intense attack. The IPOB’s sit-at-home order which compliance has been boosted with violence and forced conformity by non-state actors under the aegis of “unknown gunmen,” a phenomenon which arose in the first quarter of 2021, after the formation of the ESN in late 2020, has increased tension and caused serious uncertainty which has shaped the living conditions of most Southeast residents. With the escalating security situation, people live in fear of the unknown, and the government has been unable to restore confidence or order.
Under this scenario, the short-term implication of the exacerbating security situation and tension is stupendous losses in commercial, business, and industrial activities around the zone. But beyond these immediate losses, the Southeast is being positioned to part ways with its comparative advantage in commerce and industry, and this is only a matter of time. What this implies is that the sit-at-home is both an attack on the present and future of the Southeast zone. As of now, Onitsha is gradually but consistently losing its strategic commercial value to Asaba, a neighbouring city and the capital of Delta State. Not only have several businesses formerly in Onitsha relocated to Asaba or at least moved in part to Asaba, but many businessmen and women have also relocated to Asaba from Onitsha and Nnewi, another commercial and industrial hub in the Southeast. The emerging status of Asaba as the option to Onitsha and Nnewi signals the inevitability of Asaba rising as the new business frontier. Similar development can be noticed in Portharcourt, the Rivers state capital. What is the attraction of Asaba or Portharcourt? Every Monday, as the entire Onitsha turns into a ghost town, across the Niger Bridge is another city thriving, with full commercial and other activities in complete force and unconcerned by the sit-at-home in Onitsha or the Southeast. Both Asaba and Portharcourt from the onset fought the vestiges of the sit-at-home to a resounding defeat, refusing to compromise. For political and other reasons, the Southeast compromised, and what looked like mere civil exercise quickly turned into guerrilla warfare, leaving no place untouched and no one safe.
Today’s Southeast mirrors reality to the effect that Monday, in the last four years, has become the most unproductive day of the entire week. On Mondays, offices, including government offices, are shut down. When they are opened, it is for optics or for minimalist operations. Banks are shut down and their gates are locked. Schools are shut down, including tertiary institutions. No important activities are fixed on Mondays. Yet, just across the border into Asaba and Portharcourt, life is on in full gear. The disruption the Southeast has experienced since the sit-at-home order has completely altered the normal course of events in the Southeast. People can’t travel within or outside the Southeast on Mondays. Transport companies not only do not move on Mondays, but are also closed for operations on Mondays. To travel out to any part of the Southeast happens only scarcely and at late hours in the evening and at a high cost, laced with fear of the unknown. Commercial planes have since ceased to land in Anambra on Mondays. Most air travel out of or into the Southeast happens mainly through the Asaba airport.
In places such as Lilu in Ihiala LGA of Anambra State, nearly the entire village has been sacked. Insecurity and criminality have been somewhat accepted as a part of life with daily kidnapping and violence, which reinforce an atmosphere of fear and compliance with the sit-at-home.
As the Southeast continues to adjust to the uncomfortable reality of living with the sit-at-home order, it must count the cost of the damage to its commercial, business, and industrial advantage. The sit-at-home also confronts the Southeast’s advantage in human capital, with disruptions in education at all levels. As we count the losses in terms of how much has been lost so far, it is also important to aggregate how much more can be lost in the future both in terms of the Southeast’s identity – comparative advantage and global relevance in contributions to commerce and industry, and in terms of quality of human resources it gifts to the world. Perhaps, this will help the Southeast to take a definite position in securing its fortunes now and for the future.
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