“People live in fear of the unknown, and the government has been unable to restore confidence or order.” —Ebuka Onyekwelu
It is now about two weeks before political campaigns resume for the 2025 November 8, Anambra State Governorship Election. Going by the INEC guidelines, campaigns would resume on June 11th. By then, it will be about five months away before the election. So far, about 16 political parties are going to be participating in the November election. However, of the 16 participating political parties, there are only a few who, it could be said, are in a serious contest. By this, political parties like the Booth Party, which always produced Okeke Chuka Jerry as its candidate, cannot by any means be said to be of equal competitive standing with the Peoples Democratic Party – PDP, although both have not shown to be serious contenders in the election.
For any political party to have a fair outing, irrespective of how free and credible the election process might be, the party must have a strong membership or appeal spread across the election locality. Therefore, for any political party to pose as a serious contender for November 8, the party must have a strong presence in terms of membership or appeal in the 326 political wards of Anambra State, or at least in two-thirds of the 326 wards, or in about 220 wards. An overwhelming majority of these members must also be completely committed to their party and work for its victory. This is where the main challenge is for the Labour Party – LP and the All Progressives Congress – APC, in the upcoming governorship election.
For the LP, not only has the party not been able to build a sustainable political formation leveraging its successful outing in the 2023 election season, but the party has also been marred by all manner of traditional issues bordering on extortion and leadership conundrum. To wrap it all up, the LP candidate, Chief George Muoghalu, is now at the centre of that controversy that has raised the question of whether he remains the candidate of the party, or if LP will participate in that election at all. Whatever it might be, the fact is that LP is not in the top three in the Anambra gubernatorial race. It is now clearly a wasted opportunity. All elected members of the party don’t seem to care about the party. Add to it that Muoghalu’s rival, John Nwosu, has left the party with many of his supporters, leaving an already divided house more divided. John Nwosu, now the candidate of the ADC, might be positioning for what a viable alliance to unseat Tinubu may hold. As it is, LP cannot even play a minimalist spoiler role in the coming Anambra Election.
The APC started with a lot of hope and promise of a “new APC.” What exactly does this mean? In Anambra State, the APC is the only political party that has earned a reputation for frequently ignoring its candidate and supporting other parties’ candidates. This problem follows the same pattern in which a rigged primary election results in discontent among members, forcing them to align with the opposition rather than with their imposed candidate. Sadly for the party, this is still what the issue is about the APC in Anambra, ahead of the Governorship Election. In fact, since the emergence of Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu as the candidate of the APC, the party has lost hundreds of members and leaders, many of whom joined YPP, while others joined APGA. Many of those who remained in the party might still work against the APC’s candidate. So, ultimately, the party doesn’t have what it takes to mount a serious contest. Beyond the frenzy of the Presidential nod, which is neither here nor there, the APC and its candidate have not shown to have taken their participation in the coming election seriously. This can be seen in the manner and way the party and its candidate communicate. Only about two months ago, a personal congratulatory message to Obi of Onitsha, His Majesty, Igwe Nnaemeka Alfred Achebe, by Uzuegbuna Okagbue, was copied word for word by the now APC candidate and released as his own congratulatory message. This forced Okagbue to issue a rebuttal to that effect. Two days ago, Ukachukwu’s supporters spread news that he had been adopted by Anambra’s former governor, Chief Willie Obiano. A few hours later, the former governor refuted that and referred to the story as “fake news.” We are talking about a candidate of a party and his team not being able to write a simple piece of a congratulatory message. Then, the same candidate and party tell a public lie about a fake endorsement, which has been roundly dismissed. The truth is that the APC doesn’t stand a chance as a serious opposition, much less a potential winner in the November election, except in an extraordinary event which is still unlikely. Voting happens in the polling units, and this is why presidential support is neither here nor there. The president knows this and would work with anyone who wins in the end. But the choice of Sen. Uche Ekwunife as the running mate on the ticket has a promise to add some value to the ticket. Yet, it won’t be enough.
The incumbent governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, and his party, APGA, have now positioned themselves as the major contenders in the November election and sealed the claim with the recent visit by the president. There is little doubt that Soludo is the front-line contender in the November election because he is the incumbent governor. Therefore, it is his election to win or lose. But in real terms, APGA has a membership crisis that has erupted since Soludo’s emergence. In many wards, it is not so easy to identify real APGA members. The success of the LP in 2023 is largely due to support from members of other parties. Sensing that he might be living in a false hope of assured reelection, the governor has doubled down on his public perception with a sudden drive to interface with different media influencers under diverse guises. That the governor doesn’t enjoy deep-rooted relationships across the strata of the Anambra society is no news. What might be coming to the governor’s attention is that he might be sabotaged by his party members, many of whom participated in his first election but were abandoned. Soludo also struggles with considerable mass dislike based purely on the accusation that he is conceited. If the governor’s ongoing outreach pays off, he will pull through. If his party and former allies unite to pay him back, he will wage a bitter and strenuous political battle. The governor also bears the burden of poor performance that falls below public expectations.
The YPP, though not new, is emerging as the new opposition in Anambra politics. Sir Paul Chukwuma, the most influential APC leader in Anambra State since at least 2022, as the party’s candidate, the YPP has received more new members than any other political party in Anambra State. With a formidable, well-organized formation from local government areas to wards, down to chapter units in the Anambra South senatorial zone, YPP is not to be wished away. They also now have a sizeable and firm support base in Anambra North senatorial zone. To this end, anyone who believes there won’t be a contest is not being real. Sir Paul Chukwuma is deputized by Uzuegbuna Okagbue, a stable and very influential figure. Uzu is the most consequential running mate in this election, and the YPP’s National Executive Committee, during their recent interaction, confirmed his laser focus on goals. The fact, as of today, is that the YPP is adequately positioned to take the spoils of this election. If the candidate builds on the success of the party in the Anambra South, and then secures reasonable support in Anambra Central, bolstered by majority support in Anambra North, Soludo’s APGA would be struggling. But this is politics, where nothing is set in stone. However, given the current state of events, the YPP might be the only political party in the contest that is sure of its members’ support, by a far higher margin than any other political party in the contest.
At the baseline, for now, the fact remains that the November Governorship Election in Anambra State is contestable and the incumbent’s return is not cast in stone. If it were, his renewed efforts to curry public acceptance would not be necessary because no politician does what is unnecessary when he is assured of victory in an election.
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