The politics of the National Chairman of the All Progressive Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Hammed Tinubu, is more technical than what people might be seeing. His silence over the disagreement between the National Chairman of the APC and the Governor of Edo State, Godwin Obaseki, could be a strategy to test the popularity and who is more loyal to the party between them.
Although Oshiomhole appears to be Tinubu’s ally from the look of things, Tinubu is a man with verse experience in politics. He has experience disappointment from persons no one expects to disappoint him. Such as the case between him and Musiliu Obanikoro, Femi Pedro among others.
He has on many times posited that there is no permanent friend and permanent enemy in politics. Thus, his silence could be to test who is more popular and more loyal between the two. He welcomes both parties when they come to him and takes the position a leader should take, by affirming that direct primary will enhance the internal democracy of the party when the governors visited him on the matter.
Many may see this as an act of hypocrisy but it seems to be what works in politics, especially in the Nigerian context. You cannot trust everyone around you if you want to stay long in the position you are holding or get what you want as many around you may be aspiring for the same position you are planning to attain. Also, you can’t make you enemy a permanent enemy, always leave room for reconciliation, because you can never tell. This is why you watch what you say in the public about your perceived enemy.
Therefore, if Obaseki scale through the heat of Oshiomhole, he will be regarded as being strong, loyal, and popular while Oshiomhole will be tactically silenced. He will be blamed for not finding the solution when the sun shines, considering the fact that many elders in the party talk to him and he refused to settle the quarrel.
However, if Oshiomhole’s candidate emerges winner of the primary, then Tinubu will path Oshiomhole’s shoulder and greet him well done. He will not only build his popularity and loyalty in the party but also build his godfatherism in the state while Tinubu will have to re-strategize in order to outsmart him and others who are building their godfatherism within the party.
This tactic of being silent on the sensitive issue has worked for Tinubu in many cases, especially in Lagos and Osun as a case study and it has been against him in Oyo. In the case of Oyo, Tinubu keeps quiet and never interferes in the internal affair of the party at the state level, expecting the former Governor, Abiola Ajimobi to put the house in order.
Unfortunately, Ajimobi lost the structure and many party loyalists decamped to other new and existing parties. In a bid to silence Ajimobi in the state political affairs, the decamped members allied with the strongest opposition, which is Seyi Makinde of the People’s Democratic Party and voted out the party.
Not that the APC’s candidate in the last governorship election in Oyo, Adebayo Adelabu, offended the people but because the people felt there was a need for them to silence Ajimobi for his unguarded words. Thus, Tinubu coming in at the last minute to negotiate with Alao Akala, who was the former governor of the state, to step down for the APC candidate could not help.
In the case of Osun, Tinubu did not interfere with how the then Governor, Rauf Aregbesola ran the APC internal affairs in the state. Many people left the party just as they did in Oyo but rather than the decamped politicians to form an alliance as in the case of Oyo, they all contested and Aregbesola appeared to be the choice of about 50% of the electorates.
Thus, the election was keenly contested and the APC had a closed margin with the leading opposition. There was the need for a rerun in some areas of the state and APC made the right alliance to have its way in the election.
Therefore, Aregbesola’s loyalty and popularity were tested and he scaled through. Even in Osun state today, the crowd that follows Aregbesola when he visits the state cannot be compared to that of the sitting governor when he visits public places in the State, this is how Aregbesola has tactically built his godfatherism in Osun State.
In the case of Lagos, the former governor, Akinwunmi Ambode mismanaged the party structure, fought the party leaders at the local government level, and tried to forcefully hijack the party structure. He also fought his predecessor, rather than ensuring continuity of what is on the ground, he decided to start again.
So, as he was having issues with many party members, he was having issues with many Lagosians who were feeling things were working contrary to their expectations. When he did not win the primary, many still see the party of their choice and rule out any opposition. Even if Tinubu had supported Ambode, a lot of things would have gone wrong with the party in Lagos, and that would have a greater effect on Tinubu’s godfatherism in Lagos and some other states in the country.
A similar situation is being understudied in the politics of Edo. If Obaseki wins the Edo primary and emerges as the candidate of the APC in the state. He has shown that he is more popular than Oshiomhole in the state and the party structure will be finally handed over to him. Oshiomhole may fight it difficult to have a mouth in the state politics but Tinubu will not deny him opportunities somewhere else if he has one. He would rather try to satisfy both Oshiomhole and Obaseki to get to where he is going.
