The outcome of the 2023 elections could affect other countries on the continent as Nigeria is Africa’s largest democracy and the economy as well as the most populous nation according to a report by the Tony Blair Institute.
The report which was released on Thursday identified threats that may jeopardize the forthcoming elections and democracy in Nigeria.
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change is a non-profit organisation set up by the former UK prime minister.
“Either outcome is likely to affect Nigeria’s neighbours. A successful election could send a strong message to other African states where democracy has been backsliding,” the report reads.
“Since 2010, more than 40 coups and attempted coups have been documented on the continent, half of them in West Africa, where in the past three years alone, six have been successful.
“Similarly, political instability in Nigeria could have a ripple effect in many other African nations. Alongside the socioeconomic implications, an aborted election, or one fraught with violence and malpractice, would weaken Nigeria’s political and moral authority to take a stance against unconstitutional takeovers of power elsewhere on the continent.
Boko Haram’s factions will try and endanger the election because this is one of the group’s publicly declared ideological objectives. They will do so by stepping up attacks, including bombings in major cities, while displacing some communities and ensuring remote ones are inaccessible for campaigning or holding elections.
“While bandits are not purposely anti-democratic, their attacks on villages and displacement of more than a million people is set to disenfranchise many Nigerians.
“Meanwhile, IPOB targets critical election infrastructure and threatens candidates and voters while attacking northern residents of the southeast region.
“Additionally, all three will actively target the 1 million election workers who will be transported across Nigeria as well as the thousands of journalists and observers who will monitor the election.
“Boko Haram will attack the ideological basis, bandits will carry out kidnaps-for-ransom, and IPOB will seek out journalists and observers to send its separatist message while demonstrating its control over the southeast.”
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