AfricaBlogColumnsOpinionThe United States Should Not Play Russia’s Game in Africa

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Russia’s Wagner Group is working with rebels in Chad to target the country’s transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Deby, who came to power by extra-constitutional means when his father was killed in 2021. The plot paints a picture of an ambitious Russian strategy to gain influence in a block of African states, linking its Sahelian adventures in Mali and more nascent efforts in Burkina Faso to its initiatives in Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic. The report is undeniably alarming. That alarm could also provoke a self-defeating U.S. reaction.

The United States, bent on denying Russia another win on the continent, could decide that Mahamat’s highly questionable legitimacy can be overlooked in the name of geopolitics. The country’s unconstitutional transfer of power, extended transitional period, extrajudicial killings and persecution of political protesters could all be factored into the price that must be paid to counter Russian influence. But of course, in this scenario, even if the Wagner Group’s efforts fail, Russia wins insofar as Moscow is able to cast doubt on the sincerity of U.S. support for the rule of law, fundamental human rights, and African agency. Russia wins when the world believes that the United States is just as cynical and mendacious as the Putin regime, and it wins when U.S. policy elevates boxing out Russia over all of Washington’s long term interests in the region.