President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is currently in the strongest position to win the 2027 presidential election, according to a new state-by-state political forecast that gives him 20 states, against nine for former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and eight for Peter Obi.
The projection was released by Politico. ng’s Political Intelligence Group (PIG) and is based on the political realities and alliances in place at the moment. It is not an opinion poll or a prediction of the final election result.
PIG said: “If the election were held today, based on the political realities and alignments currently on the ground, the APC and President Tinubu would have the advantage.”
The group also stressed that “However, this is a projection of the current situation, not a declaration of the eventual result. A lot can happen between now and 2027.”
The forecast comes as the political parties begin positioning themselves for the 2027 contest. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed 16 January 2027, for the presidential and National Assembly elections.
Tinubu projected to sweep the South-West
Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is projected to win all six South-West states — Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti.
The projection marks a potential return of Lagos to Tinubu’s column. Obi won Lagos in the 2023 presidential election, while Tinubu retained significant political influence in the state where he built his political career.
PIG also projects a Tinubu victory in Kano, one of Nigeria’s largest electoral territories and a key battleground in the North. A win there would strengthen the president’s position beyond his traditional South-West base.
The group attributed part of Tinubu’s projected advantage to his administration’s economic policies and efforts to reposition the country.
However, the economy remains a major uncertainty.
Inflation, purchasing power, employment, insecurity, infrastructure, and the cost of living are expected to shape the 2027 campaign, particularly if economic hardship remains a major concern for voters.
PIG noted that the government’s ability to explain its policies and demonstrate tangible improvements in Nigerians’ lives could influence whether its current political advantage survives until election day.
Atiku holds nine-state projection
Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is projected to win nine states, with his strongest support expected in parts of Northern Nigeria.
Kaduna is among the states placed in his column, alongside other areas in the North-West and North-East.
Atiku’s political experience, extensive network, and previous presidential campaigns remain important assets as he seeks to challenge Tinubu.
But the former vice-president faces the task of converting his northern support into a broader national coalition.
His running mate is former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi, whom the ADC announced in June.
The cost of living could also become an important issue for Atiku. The former vice-president and his party have criticised the government’s economic policies, including its handling of petrol pricing.
The opposition’s position on fuel subsidy, however, is already creating differences within the emerging opposition camp.
On Tuesday, ADC spokesman Bolaji Abdullahi said Obi’s position on subsidies could threaten efforts to unite the opposition. “If Peter Obi doesn’t believe in the return of subsidy while we do, then what would be the basis for a merger?” he asked.
Obi projected to win eight states, FCT
Peter Obi, now the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), is projected to win eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory also going his way.
The forecast reflects the support Obi established during the 2023 presidential election, when he emerged as a major political force, particularly among younger voters and in parts of southern Nigeria.
Obi formally moved to the NDC after leaving the ADC and Labour Party and was subsequently cleared to contest the NDC presidential primary. He was unveiled as the party’s 2027 presidential candidate in May.
His campaign has focused heavily on accountability, economic management, public spending, and the need for political change.
In August, Obi challenged presidential candidates to defend their records and plans before Nigerians.
“Every candidate that seeks the presidency must have the courage to come before the people, answer their questions, defend their records, and subject their vision to public scrutiny.”
His major challenge will be extending his support beyond the areas where he performed strongly in 2023.
Opposition unity could upset the forecast
The forecast comes at a particularly fluid moment in Nigeria’s opposition politics.
On Monday, opposition parties began fresh discussions in Abuja on the possibility of presenting a single presidential candidate against Tinubu in 2027. Representatives of the ADC, NDC, Peoples Democratic Party and three other opposition parties attended the meeting, although Atiku and Obi were absent.
The development could significantly alter the current state-by-state projection if the major opposition forces eventually agree on a common candidate.
PIG similarly warned that defections, alliances, running mates, campaign structures and economic conditions could change the political map before Nigerians vote.
The significance of such changes is already evident in the current political landscape. Tinubu’s APC has strengthened its position through a series of defections, while opposition parties are still struggling to settle on a united strategy.
A recent Associated Press analysis also identified the fragmented opposition as one of the president’s major political advantages.
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