How far is the Prediction of the Experts Coming to Reality with latest Presidential Executive Order that overrides the National Assembly, and approves “Free Entry” of African migrants to Nigeria without Visas?
The US Top experts on Sub-Saharan Africa that predicted Nigeria as a “Failed State” warned in 2005 that Nigeria opening its borders to migrants – “refugees” may lead to disastrous outcomes including migration of terrorists and extremists seeking new bases for their operation and other jihadists also looking for affiliated “communities” either to sympathize or support in the course of their peculiar objectives or find home to start their own terrorist activities.
The National Intelligence Report 2020 warning comes into attention as President Mohammadu Buhari issues an Executive Order that overrides the National Assembly deliberations and approved the “Free Entry “without Visas of African migrants to Nigeria.
The NIC 2020 has disclosed warned that “It is likely, for instance, that migrants or refugees will find an increasingly hostile reception amongst nominal host countries. Many African governments have learned that conflicts in neighboring countries can drag on for many years and that a commitment to house refugees can be a very long-term commitment. Refugees have also been a cause of destabilization in many areas.”
The NIC 2020 further warned that “ There will be many opportunities for terrorist groups that threaten the West to seek haven across the continent. However, it is unlikely that Africa will become much of a supplier of international terrorists because of the profound differences between the Islam practiced in Africa and that in the Middle East.”
The Report continued,” Nor will terrorist groups find supportive governments in Africa akin to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. However, those terrorists’ groups seeking sanctuary for their fugitive principals or who want to hide dangerous weapons may find the distant regions of some African countries inviting precisely because they are unlikely to be interrupted by government.”
“ The ability of terrorists to use Africa as safe haven only naturally increases the probability that these armed groups will seek to attack soft Western and Israeli targets on the continent,” the report revealed.
As the NIC 2020 Report and its predictions come at the end of the decade, the report provided the patterns of conflicts in Nigeria and Africa. “As in the past, most African conflicts will be internal, although the pattern of outsiders intervening in civil wars, either to help one of the protagonists or to protect themselves from the fallout of the conflict, will continue.” It dismisses any fears that Muslims and Christians will engage in any conflict, leading to even as it is known that Iran and Saudi Arabia are spending millions of dollars as well as Pentecostal and Evangelist Christians to win converts and impose their voice in every dialogue in the country including politics.
The NIC 2020 report notes “Africa is at the center of many proselytizing efforts worldwide: the Catholic Church has made Africa a priority while Pentecostal and Evangelical Christian movements spend millions of dollars on recruiting large numbers of Africans. Iran has also devoted substantial efforts to fostering its religious and political views in Africa. Finally, Saudi Arabia has spent large amounts of money to export its exclusionary Wahhabi tradition,” the NIC 2020 disclosed.
The Report continued, “ The state system in Africa is unlikely to divide into Muslim versus non-Muslim states, not least because of the split personality of many African states in this respect. North African states will continue to identify much more with the Middle East and will probably not have active foreign policies toward Africa. The interior African states, composed overwhelmingly of Muslims, are unlikely to pose any threat to their neighbors. It is highly unlikely, no matter other domestic developments, that Nigeria will develop a distinct identity as a Muslim state, although religious conflict centered around Islam within Nigeria is likely to continue.” “The rise of identity politics everywhere and that communal conflict will become increasingly important as NGOs and others vie for attention. “Africa has experienced some religious conflict to date, especially in Nigeria, but one of the great unanswered questions is how much more violence religious diversity will promote?”
While the NIC 2020 Report recommended several options open to Nigeria to avert the “failed State, it warned, “While currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner.”
“If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive international assistance.”
On more positive side of predictions, NIC 2020 Report disclosed that progressive states that made in road to uphold their constitution will enjoy democratic consolidation and make significant gains in improving their democratic and economic futures. “Strong states will make elections institutionalized and show continuous improvements in operations on their parliaments, courts systems and other institutions; upholding of all the rights of citizens, fair elections which it predicted that both semi and autocratic regimes will try to make elections seem like it took place, while the results are manipulated or no elections held.
The Report also revealed that coming out of a failed State status include stopping the events that are tilting the nation to a failed state status including leaders opening to accept the realities of open market – globalization that is real and not to be a threat. Training of citizens to the realities of adapting to the technological needs for domestic industrial development and also for exporting these skills; reducing migration of highly-trained professionals from leaving the country; observance of true Federalism, distribution of resources to the states rather than the focus or concentration of power at the center or the federal government; governments must recognize that globalization is based on consistent implement of Information Technologies plans that requires relatively large cadres of trained professionals and of course disproportionately benefits this class of people. For government to achieve high-governance-achieving status, it must make enough deliberate reforms to attract international investments, retain trained manpower and take advantage of technological developments
“Such leaders must begin REFORMS to nurture their constituencies through economic progress tied to globalization. Avoid the consolidation of administrative capacities of the law enforcement agencies – the police and the military. Avoid the use of the police and the military from having the substantive ability to intimidate and harass their own people.
♦ Primus Chuks Igboaka, Ph.D., MBA writes from Cleveland, Ohio. He was Lagos State Governor’s National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), 1986 Award winner for Leadership and Service. . He was a Senior Correspondent with the National Concord, and currently an Adjunct Professor of Communications at Kent State University, Kent, Ohio and Cuyahoga Community College (Tri-C), a City College with over 50, 000 students.
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