The events that followed the dethronement and banishment of former Emir Sanusi Muhammed II have aroused speculations that the embattled Emir could take a shot at national politics in 2023, but John Campbell, the former Ambassador of the United States to Nigeria has said that Sanusi has no clear path because of the existing power shift arrangement between Christians and Muslims and north and south.
Mr. Campbell, a senior fellow for Africa Policy gave his opinion on the power play for the 2023 presidency by Nigeria’s politicians in a blog for the Council on Foreign Relations. He said although Sanusi’s antecedent makes him popular among the big players in the economy in Lagos and international business circle, he is not likely to get the support of Lagos-based political class because of his ethnic origin and his role in the past as “a critic of the political economy from which they benefit.”
The diplomat also stated that the other impediment Malam Sanusi may face is the power rotation principle which is based on religion and ethnic factors, an arrangement he added was put in place to resolve the northern, Muslim, political class fear of domination and exclusion from the government by the ‘more advanced south’ since the colonial era.
“On the national level, Nigeria’s system of political alternation, or “power shift,” between Christians and Muslims and between north and south, plays against him… In principle, after eight years under President Buhari, a Muslim from the north, it will be the Christian south’s turn in 2023,” he said.
He added that in southern Nigeria, religion would play a role in determining who gets the presidential ticket. Mr. Campbell particularly mentioned Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Babatunde Raji Fashola, two Yoruba Muslim politicians, saying that pairing them or any southern Muslim with Malam Sanusi was possible but would likely get a push back from the Christian political leaders in the south.
“Could a southern ticket include two Muslims, with Sanusi as a vice-presidential candidate? That is a possibility. However, the way forward for Tinubu, Fashola, or other Muslim presidential candidates is not clear. Since 1993, the south’s Christian majority has become much more politicized and uncompromising.”
“What about an Osinbajo-Sanusi ticket? A dream for the business community. But Osinbajo denies political ambition and says he is merely “on loan” from his church to the government as vice president. In any event, 2023 is a long way away, and much could happen in the interim,” he concluded.
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