The narrative of the Governor of Edo State, Godwin Obaseki, has reached its climax with his party, All Progressive Congress (APC), disqualifying him from contesting in the party’s primary scheduled for June 22, 2020.
This story of political intrigue has gotten a lot of people talking against the ruling APC but the reality remains that if Obaseki had succeeded in outsmarting Oshiomhole, many party members, especially the governors, would make many attempts to do things that are contrary to the choice of the party and the party’s structure would have been hijacked. This will ruin the party in the long run.
One of the persons that have said as such to the face of Obaseki from the opposition camp is Former Aviation Minister during the administration of the current leading opposition, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Femi Fani-Kayode. Fani-Kayode in his Tweet in reaction to the situation, said, “One of the most important virtues in life is LOYALTY. Never bite the finger that fed you. Obaseki has learned this lesson the hard way. I have known Oshiomole for years. He is a formidable adversary, a skillful fighter & a tough cookie. Obaseki could never have outmaneuvered him.”
The APC’s Screening Committee which was headed by Prof. Jonathan Ayuba had claimed in its report presented to the party’s National Working Committee, that the governor was disqualified from participating in the party’s June 22 primary for discrepancies in his names and certificates and for taking the party to the court which is contrary to the rules of the party.
Although Obaseki and Oshiomhole had been on loggerheads since last year, it is essential to note that two other aspirants were also disqualified from contesting in the primary ahead of the governorship election scheduled for September 19, 2020, in the state. Those cleared to take part in the primary were Mr. Osaro Obaze, Dr. Pius Odubu, and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu.
In a sharp reaction, the leading opposition party, PDP, quickly made his door open for Obaseki to come in. Meanwhile, there has been a report where the party says that there won’t be an automatic ticket for the governor if he joins the party.
Many commentators have suggested that Obaseki should join the PDP and contest as some foresee the end of the APC in the state. One of such commentators is the former National Chairman of the APC, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, who foresees dire consequences for the party in the coming election in the state.
According to him, “While not a surprise, that disqualification is a clear indication that internal democracy has been murdered in APC; a party which we founded on the principles of fair play and good conscience.
“I dare say that APC will suffer dire consequences in Edo State if this disqualification is not speedily reversed. As a matter of fact, Oshiomhole is indeed the one who is guilty of anti-party (activities), not Obaseki. I hope Oshiomhole will not go down in history as the undertaker of APC.”
However, I don’t think leaving the party at this juncture is best for the governor, he had the chances of leaving the party and build himself in another party, but he stayed to fight the hierarchy. Thus, he is facing the consequences of his action and it is better for him to wait and tactically settle with his political enemies within the party, he can still come back.
Also, some persons have cited the case of Samuel Ortom of Benue State, who decamped to PDP after APC denied him second term ticket due to disagreement, he was having his predecessor. It is essential to note that Ortom was not having a technical issue of certificate inadequacy as that of the Obaseki. It is therefore advisable that Obaseki should solve the issue of his certificates first before considering the next move. Because, if that is not solved, and he eventually wins, it will still be used against him at the tribunal by the APC.
One thing about human error is, if you dig deep, you will always find one or two, APC could have more errors on the Obaseki side which may be more dangerous than this. Remember that some elements in the party first came up with the claim of a fake university certificate before the intervention of the University of Ibadan. Now they came with inadequacy in names on the presented certificates and lack of loyalty to the party. When it comes to digging human error, I think APC has an upper in the present Nigeria Politic, I can remember the story of Musiliu Obanikoro in Lagos.
In addition, when it comes to the party’s structure in the Edo, is Obaseki’s confidence in having a large percentage of it on his side? This question is necessary because these are people that will work for him and the National Chairman, Obaseki is fighting, is also from Edo State. Ortom’s predecessor could be from Benue but he was not holding a strong position as that of the Oshiomhole. Obaseki may be disappointed by those who he thinks are supporting him if he decided to cross.
Many have likened Obaseki’s circumstances with that of the former governor of Lagos State, Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode. One thing I learned about the Ambode saga was that he lost the party’s structure to the extent that even if who was regarded as acting the godfather’s role endorsed him, there is a possibility that the party will break and the center would no longer be holding. I can remember how road sweepers at Iyana-Ipaja in Alimosho Local Government, Lagos, whom he had disengaged from their incomes are cursing him and cursing any party members that vote for him in the primary. These people are party members who Ambode predecessor had stylishly created jobs for. Unfortunately for Ambode, these are people that vote most and not the so-called intellectuals in the offices.
Even the current governor of Lagos, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu, when he was asked if he will contest for the second term, considering the situation that exit his predecessor from office, he replied “Lagosians will determine my second term”. From my engagement with some APC members in Lagos, I learned that the godfather objected to the second term of former governor Babatunde Fashola but because he had engaged the party members, they stood by him and the godfather have to give up and let him go for the second term. The lesson here is that, even as the people stood behind Fashola, he still managed the institution of godfatherism peacefully and the people intellectually. Thus, his political tentacle keeps expanding.
Therefore, how much is the confidence of Obaseki in having the structure of the party at the state level under his control? How much confidence does he have that if he crosses to the PDP, that the issue of the certificate will not hurt him if he later wins the election as projected by some media commentators? How much is his confidence that he does not have other errors that his political enemies can still dig out? It is better to solve the issue with his known enemies now and have a better chance of contesting and winning governorship election with clear and peaceful second tenure or other political appointments than risk the blurry chances.
