AfricaBlogColumnsOpinionKampala Attacks Exacerbate Uncertainty Over Uganda’s Future

In late October and again in November, Uganda was the target of terrorist attacks perpetrated by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a group based in the Democratic Republic of Congo and linked to the self-proclaimed Islamic State. In response, Uganda has deployed a significant number of troops to eastern Congo. The counterterrorism operation is characterized by uncertain timelines and metrics of success. None of this bodes well for Uganda or the region.

Of course, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and his government cannot remain passive in the face of suicide bombings outside of parliament. Security is a prerequisite for achieving all of Uganda’s development goals, and in a region with a rich and recent history of destabilizing cross-border insurgencies and devastating consequences for civilians, simply hoping for the best is a bad bet. But an effective response to the ADF has eluded Uganda in the past. The country has an ugly history of worsening conditions in eastern Congo, prompting Congolese Nobel Prize winner Denis Mukwege to describe Ugandan troops as “arsonist-firefighters.”