The flagoff of All Progressives Grand Alliance – APGA, governorship campaign on Saturday, September 25th, witnessed massive turnout despite intense misgivings on the part of the party leadership which has paved a highway for anger, rancor, and division in APGA. In many quarters, this massive turnout has already been interpreted as approval rating and in consequence, the leadership of the party may wish to further ignore their own error of judgment or miscalculations, which will impact the election result.
It is therefore important to note that turnout in such a well-planned and financed political outing, is usually not a yardstick for any serious political calculation. In simple terms, it does not bestow a peculiar advantage to any party for the simple reason that the same people who turned up for party ‘A’ event, are usually the same people who turn up for other party’s events as well.
The reality again is that the biting economic condition has even made it easier for more people to be handy, to be bought by those in need of a crowd.
The other reason is that any well-planned political event often has huge sums of money set aside for “mobilization”. This is to say that monies are budgeted to bring hundreds or thousands of people from all the local governments in the state, and those who are experienced in this arrangement know how to get the job done. Sometimes, not only transportation is made available for those that may wish to come to the venue, they are also paid. In fact, even party faithful are provided with free transportation and after the event, they are given a stipend depending on the available budget, as “thank you for coming” or as “transport fare”. For both party and non-party men and women, there is nothing too serious; it is all transactional. This is why you cannot go to any political event and not see people writing names or struggling to write names on a paper passed around. The names contained in the list are what qualifies participants to share in the stipend. Therefore, it does not appear that there is a clear link between large crowds and election victory. But then also, large crowds in a political gathering is mostly a product of skillful “mobilization”, rather than an expression of support or solidarity. Matter of fact, there are some people who, once contacted, can bring hundreds of people to any venue at any time for any event, and they get paid for the job. On the other hand, there is hardly any party man or woman who, out of love for the party, will pay their own transport to a campaign ground, especially if s/he is living far from the venue.
This is why caution is advised when some supporters of different political parties advertise crowds in their political rallies to score the same political point that they are more popular. And so they deliberately capture the crowd at their rallies or events, as a show of both public approval of their party’s acceptability and also as a pointer that they will win the election. Though it follows the same logical sequence in which democracy presupposes to be a rule by the majority. So intuitively, it is reasoned that the party with the highest crowd is equal to the one that will have the highest vote. But in reality, election and electioneering are distinctively apart. The reality again is that the biting economic condition has even made it easier for more people to be handy, to be bought by those in need of a crowd. On the election day, those who have voter’s cards and are at the polling units to vote are not exactly concerned about those programmes and the manifesto of the candidate(s) to which they shouted excitedly during campaigns. Most at that point, just want to sell their votes to the highest bidder.
So for APGA, APC, PDP, or YPP, none of the above facts will change on account of the name of the party. The same rules apply. However, the APGA flag-off threw up some more puzzles, like why some of the leaders of the party were absent. Particularly why Chief Emeka Ojukwu Jnr, APGA BOT member and the son of Ikemba; the supreme leader of APGA, whose picture was recently removed from APGA’s uniform, was absent. Then also, why Lady Bianca, the supreme leader’s widow was absent. What do these mean for APGA? Although Mrs. Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu has given an explanation as to her absence at the flag-off, in which she chided the party’s leadership in a media report while she explained why she was absent at the event.
However, Chief Emeka Ojukwu Jr. is yet to make any public statement as to why he chose to be absent from the flag-off. In fact, the last Emeka Ojukwu Jnr spoke on APGA issue was when, a few weeks ago, he condemned in the strongest terms, the sudden removal of Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegbwu-Ojukwu’s image from APGA uniform. Though both Bianca and Emeka Ojukwu have not jointly or individually endorsed any other candidate for the governorship election in November, Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu’s open opposition to the leadership of the party should not be disregarded. Worst still, Emeka Ojukwu’s silence should not be ignored. So, while the impressive crowd and turnout make for a good publicity stunt purely for the purposes of scoring some political points, APGA must pay attention to the basics and must work hard to earn a victory at the November polls. The suspicion of a palpable disregard meted to some party leaders and members must not be allowed to continue till the election, now counting in days.
As APGA celebrates a successful governorship campaign flag-off, the party must not be supercilious, it must instead show grace. The party must be focused on the rudiments of electoral victory, and while engaging the people, engage its own members and restore the confidence of party faithful all of whom are required for a win. Any minus, loss of membership or support, is unhealthy for the party and only a prelude, perhaps an ominous sign of a possible summersault of the party at the polls.
♦ Ebuka Onyekwelu, strategic governance exponent, is a columnist with the WAP
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