Politics entails both public and private interests of individuals. So it happens that people always gravitate towards the direction where their interests have been served better.
Although there is a near consensus that Peter Obi, the Presidential candidate of Labour Party is the most suitable, in terms of age, health, credibility, and many other measurable indices that should guide the election of public officers. But politics retains all elements of surprises which always unleashed. Besides, arguments about the 2023 Presidential election have gradually moved from political blocs — say North and South, to ethnic identities say Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa, etc. The debate has further moved to religion with APC’s candidate mobilizing Muslims extensively, while the LP candidate moves from one Church event to another.
The coming 2023 Presidential Election might yet be the most divisive the country has ever witnessed. Whoever wins the election will be hard-pressed with serious challenge of nation-building, in addition to the existential challenge of insecurity and economic catastrophe. Despite these extremely difficult odds against whoever wins, the excitement is electrifying, but the truth still, is that there is no quick fix for Nigeria, no matter who wins.
Nigeria will not have all its problems solved with the snap of fingers because any of the candidates won. Instead, whoever wins, the country will take time, under a meaningful and purposeful leadership driven by a clear vision, to develop a coherent template for the country’s progress, then, monster the political will to implement the same within its life span and the next government will do same and the next will do same and the next after it.
It is therefore important that in the excitement and push for new leadership, Nigerians must bear in mind that they are not about to have a messiah in 2023. This is vital so that they do not feel disappointed in the new government which will find it difficult to hit the ground running, no matter how prepared because of the prevailing reality on the ground. The earlier this reality is accepted by Nigerians, the better for them and for the incoming government.
On the election outcome, political contest at any level can turn out any way, even in a most free and credible election. Human beings that are the constant factor in any election are susceptible to adjusting their choices for any or no reason at all. Therefore, some people who are supporting, for instance; candidate A, may end up voting for candidate B and vice versa. This is a major reason why political outcomes are usually hit with a surprise.
Politics entails both public and private interests of individuals. So it happens that people always gravitate towards the direction where their interests have been served better. In perspective, the 2023 Presidential Election will largely be influenced by money. People will gradually move from talking about the most credible and fit for the job, to the most likely to win. A psychological onslaught on people’s judgment to dissuade them from going on to vote for their preferred candidate because he will not win, even though it is voting that will make the winner win. That a candidate will not win is because he is not voted for. Yet, many people may buy into this disinformation and allow the same to guide where their votes go.
If at the end of the day the argument of who becomes the country’s next president is reduced to ethnic and religious slurs, for the most part, then, the post-2023 Presidential Election might also come along with violence or some level of religious and ethnic extremism, either way. What this implies is that no matter who wins and under what circumstances he has won, the winning might just produce rancor as a natural consequence of the election build-up. Every section of Nigeria is severely troubled and small friction can lead to utter combustion. There are different levels of armed conflict in all sections of Nigeria, as of today and with the political tension associated with important elections like the Presidential Election, it is predictable that it might get worse because of the desperation of political actors who may want to have their way at all cost.
It is instructive therefore, that statesmen, civil society organizations, media, and political actors must do all they can to deemphasize religion and ethnicity in the coming presidential election. The people must also exercise restraint and caution in their engagements, as well as expectations of the new government, post-2023.
He is a Technical Assistant to Governor Willie Obiano’s Special Adviser on Legislative Matters, whoonce was a Special Adviser to a former Deputy Speaker of Anambra State House of Assembly. Ebuka is a second class upper division graduate of Political Science from University of Calabar, Calabar Nigeria and holds a Masters Degree in Political Science with specialization in Government and Development Studies, from Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka Nigeria
