Boko Haram is said by the Nigerian government officials to be ‘technically defeated’, but recent incidents portray an adversary on a rampage and an unending bloody nightmare for the military since the civil war. Adeola Oladipupo, The West African Pilot News Correspondent, writes.
It was founded in the Northeast state of Borno in 2002 by an Islamic cleric, Mallam Muhammed Yusuf, as a Salafi movement, part of Sunni Islam, which wanted a state that would operate an Islamic legal system known as Sharia. But Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati Wal-Jihad also known as Boko Haram became violent following its exploitation by politicians, police brutality and the extra-judicial killing of its founder in 2009.
In 2010, Abubakar Shekau, Yusuf’s deputy, became the leader of Boko Haram and hell was unleashed on Nigeria’s Northeast region. Under the hysterical Shekau, within a decade, the terrorist group targeted both civilians and security agents, seized control of several communities and military bases, made Sambisa forest – four times the size of London or 18 times the size of Lagos – its stronghold, expanded operations to countries in the Lake Chad Region, bombed facilities in the Northeast and Northwest, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and an equally deadly group — Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) — emerged from it.
Leaving 244,000 refugees and over 37,000 dead people in its wake, Nigeria’s war against terrorists which has dragged on for over a decade is currently a source of persistent headache for the government of Muhammadu Buhari, after it contributed to the collapse of the second term bid of former President Goodluck Jonathan. Over the years, the onslaught against terrorists has been supervised by several military chiefs and seen the deployment of troops under numerous operations.
With more troops and civilians paying the ultimate price, especially in ambush attacks, the war has become dead-tiring for everyone. A recent report revealed that at least 356 soldiers on the frontline of the war against Boko Haram are seeking voluntary retirement, citing loss of interest. Another report described the last two years as deadlier than any other for Nigerian soldiers. But the question for many has been: Why is Nigeria not able to deal a final blow to terrorists?
Corruption is a usual culprit for the otiosity of Nigeria’s defense sector. In eleven years, from 2008 to 2018, total allocation to defence was six trillion naira. In 2012, 2013 and 2014, while about N2.945 trillion (48.30%) was spent on security, there was little to show for it because the sector was plagued with massive stealing of funds by some top military officials and politicians.
In the past, frontline troops had refused to fight terrorists or absconded due to inadequate resources – equipment, manpower and intelligence. The problems still exist. In a recent video, General Olusegun Adeniyi, surrounded by crying soldiers, lamented inadequate equipment and poor intelligence. The General was redeployed.
“Boko Haram would be a tough opponent to every army, but for the Nigerian Army – already facing many problems – the fight is and would be even harder,” Tomasz Rolbiecki, an independent security analyst and tracker of attacks by ISIS and other Jihadi groups worldwide, told the West African Pilot News. “Successful counterinsurgency requires resources and the military clearly lacks them.”
Jacob Zenn, a Senior Fellow on African Affairs at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and the author of Unmasking Boko Haram: Exploring Global Jihad in Nigeria, agrees that the Nigerian Military is poorly equipped for unconventional warfare, but noted that the country would need more than equipment to end terror groups that have bases outside the country’s borders in Niger, Chad and Cameroon and are resourced by international terror groups such as ISIL.
In 2014, the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) was set up to coordinate the counterinsurgency efforts of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Benin. But issues, including poor cooperation, funds starvation and resistance to armies’ integration weakened the initiative. In December 2019, President Idriss Derby of Chad withdrew over 1000 troops from the MNJTF force fighting in Nigeria. He said the Chadian military got little support from its neighbours.
“So it is a very complex problem to defeat a group when you also need to partner with other countries which have their own priorities,” Zenn told the West African Pilot News. “It is more than an issue of unpreparedness; it is also an issue of lack of regional coordination.
Security analysts including Rolbiecki, believe Nigeria could ask world powers such as the United States for help especially with drone strikes on Boko Haram’s stronghold. But Zenn opined that Nigeria should not hope for a direct intervention by world powers to combat terrorists because their attacks are confined only to the Lake Chad region and have not started attacking the US or Europe and their interests.
The frontline strategy of the Nigerian military has also been blamed for the prolonged war against terrorists in the Northeast. Observers say that relying excessively on defensive tactics and less on pushing against insurgents, give terrorists plenteous opportunities to re-group and strike.
“In terms of strategy, I think that the military leadership is not doing enough,” Zenn affirmed. He described the strategy as one “that ensures a stalemate and not a victory.”
“Giving the stalemate, in the Northeast, if the government or the military wants to defeat the group, they need to recognise that the strategy is not one for defeat, it is a strategy for a stalemate where Boko Haram is confined to rural Borno,” He explained.
Rolbiecki attributed the inconsistent offensive operations by the military in the Northeast to being spread too thin.
The Nigerian military is battling bandits in the Northwest and killer herdsmen in the Middle-belt.
“I would love to see a full offensive against Boko Haram in Sambisa, Alagarno and Lake Chad, but this, once again, needs resources and manpower. Super camps are meant to make civilians living inside them feel safer. However, it makes those living in the rural areas vulnerable,” Rolbiecki said.
Recently, due to increasing attacks on troops and civilians, some Nigerians called for the sack of military service chiefs to allow new ideas to end insurgency. Other people say that changing a general in the middle of a war is not ideal. President Buhari still holds on to them despite being due for retirement.
Experts told the West African Pilot News that removing the chiefs without addressing other issues would do little in helping Nigeria to defeat terrorist groups.
Zenn believes that the political class needs to be resolute in flushing out terrorists, just as it prevented Boko haram from continuing its attack on Abuja, the political capital.
Rolbiecki suggested that the Air Force ramps up its activities by targeting senior terrorist leaders, with the aim of demoralising the foot soldiers.
“The military won’t do much by itself, especially in the current state of affairs. Minor actions won’t bring results and the major ones sound almost impossible to carry out… Those in power need to see the bigger picture,” Rolbiecki affirmed.
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